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Analysts Holding to Predictions of Mid-Single Digit Holiday Sales Increase image

Analysts Holding to Predictions of Mid-Single Digit Holiday Sales Increase

As the results from Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales poured in, retail experts are holding firm to a mid-single digit percentage increase in holiday sales, buoyed by low unemployment and consumers holding to their year-long trend of spending more.

Getting a firm read on the extended weekend means adjusting to the reality of a changing retail business: It’s impossible to look discretely at either brick-and-mortar sales results or online performance to draw conclusions about the overall retail marketplace. Rather they must be viewed in aggregate as an omni-channel whole.

So while some shopping tracker services reported traffic to U.S. bricks and mortar stores on Thanksgiving and Black Friday declined anywhere from1 (ShopperTrak) to 5-9% (RetailNext),those have to be considered in combination with big gains online.

About $7.9 billion in sales were pulled in on Cyber Monday, up 19.7% from year ago, making it the largest single shopping day in U.S. history, according to Adobe Systems, which tracks activity across thousands of websites. And that was on top of web-based sales during the Wednesday to Black Friday period, which surged 26.4% from a year earlier to $12.3 billion, according to Adobe. Black Friday itself recorded $6.3 billion in online sales, up 22% from year earlier, Adobe said.

Amazon reported, without providing details, that Cyber Monday was the “single biggest shopping day” in the company’s history. It said it sold more than 18 million toys and 13 million fashion items on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. And customers ordered more than four million toys and electronics on Black Friday using Amazon’s mobile app, the company said.

Department store retailer Hudson’s Bay (Hudson’s Bay, Lord & Taylor, Saks Fifth Avenue) said it was “pleased” with sales during the holiday weekend, with shoppers buying more per visit with cashmere, shoes and outerwear cited as top-selling categories. Indeed, the blast of cold weather in the Northeastern U.S. helped spur sales of outerwear, industry experts said.

Walmart reported customer traffic was “steady” across the chain throughout the weekend with smartphones, toys, videogames consoles, cookware and TVs being among the most popular items, Walmart U.S. Chief Merchandising Officer Scott Bratspies said in a statement.

Retailers also jump-started the traditional Black Friday sales earlier.  For example, Target REDcard holders were given early given early access to 100 Black Friday online deals Wednesday night. The online deals were available online to all Target shoppers early Thanksgiving morning; Target opened its stores at 5 pm that day.

GameStop opened its stores at 3 pm on Thanksgiving and quickly sold through a key doorbuster, a Spider-Man videogame packaged with a PlayStation 4 that was discounted $100 to $199.  The same “early start” pattern held true for some in advance of Cyber Monday, beginning their promotional periods Sunday night. For example, that night Hot Topic was offering Cyber Monday deals of up to 50% discounts on products across its website, including a Riverdale board game and sheet set (both $31.43 after 30% discount).

Said equity investment firm KeyBanc in a research note: “We think the holiday shopping season got off to a healthy start” with signs pointing to potential for a “strong” season. “The shifting of promotions earlier and online was a notable trend.”

The brick-and-mortar kickoff on Black Friday had legs, noted NPD Group’s Marshall Cohen on Twitter, calling Saturday a “decent day for all retailers.” He said that the Small Business Saturday promotion – launched several years ago by American Express to highlight independent, locally owned retailers — received “mixed reviews, ” with shoppers being “more social than spenders,” Cohen said.

Yet, while retailers have traditionally focused sharp discounts for Black Friday – Kohl’s was offering 40%-50% discounts on MerchSource’s FAO Schwartz toys — industry experts and retailers are increasing seeing a smoothing out of promotions throughout the holiday period in a bid to keep customers as shoppers beyond it.  For example, Target is offering a different deal every day this week as part of “Cyber Week” promotion. And many industry analysts also pointed to consumers increasingly viewing Black Friday as a multi-day event capped by Cyber Monday and are spreading their spending with the confidence that deals will be available throughout the period.

“It is no longer about hammering the customer during a two -day promotion, but rather creating a long-term relationship that extends beyond that,” Salesforce.com’s Rob Garf said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

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