By Mark Seavy

Back-to-school (BTS) pricing promotions alone haven’t been enough to attract consumers pinched by inflation as they seek quality and value, supplier executives said.

The BTS season started off slowly in early July, with some mass retailers launching marketing campaigns a week later than in 2023 and with many shifting their focus to a younger audience.

Walmart, for example, launched a video titled “School Style Decoded: A Runway Show Master Class for Parents” featuring elementary school age children flaunting new apparel as they walked down a bus aisle.

Some specialty retailers also responded to initially sluggish sales by weighing markdowns to clear inventory, licensing executives said. Sales at Hot Topic and Box Lunch were strong, however, with the chains seeing “built-up styles at higher retails,” said Sean Parnell, VP of Accessories at Bioworld.

In the U.S., BTS retail spending for students in kindergarten through 12th grade will drop to $39 billion this year (down from a record $41 billion a year earlier), according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

Much of this year’s initial sales were typical school supplies as well as backpacks, lunch boxes, apparel, and other products. For families with annual incomes under $100,000, quality and comfort beat price in footwear, according to AlixPartners.

“While inflation has been an obsession among shoppers around cost—recently raising the importance of discounts to drive traffic—the deal alone isn’t what’s converting sales of kids’ shoes today,” said Bryan Eshelman, Partner and Managing Director at AlixPartners. “Consumers, in fact, are more focused on value for their spend. In this scenario, the lowest price has been less important than durability and comfort.”

Yet even with a shift in consumer preferences, the forecasts for suppliers are mixed.

For example, Concept One has seen a three-fold increase in sales of New Balance-licensed backpacks as part of a deal that is in its third year, said Concept One CEO Sam Hafif, whose company added the Elements streetwear/skateboarding brand to its mix. And The Footwear Retailers and Distributors of America (FRDA) is projecting a “modest” increase in BTS-related footwear sales.

However, school supplies company Acco Brands, which sells under the Mead, Kensington, Day Planner, At-a-Glance, and other brands, expects BTS sales to decline in the U.S. and Canada due to “a softer demand environment,” CEO Thomas Tedford said, adding that revenue from BTS products in Brazil has been “weaker than expected” in fiscal Q2. Part of Acco’s decline in sales is also tied to its dropping private label products to focus on core brands.

“For the back-to-school season in the U.S., we are forecasting sales for the season to be down modestly compared to prior years,” Tedford said. “We expect our year-over-year declines to be greater than the broader market. We have initiatives underway to gain market share with Five Star and Mead brands for the upcoming back-to-school season and expect another year of strong performance.”

Also tempering its forecast for the BTS season was Crocs, which nevertheless posted a 17% gain in Q2 sales. The note of caution is largely tied to retail buyers being “somewhat cautious” in placing order, said Crocs CEO Andrew Rees.

“They are buying based on the current trajectory of the business and what they see for the remainder of the year.” Rees said. “That’s really a U.S. comment. As we look at our Crocs order book domestically and globally and the strength of our spring 2025 line, we’re happy with where it’s at.”