Most cinemas have reopened, but the once familiar film release cadence has been radically reordered with streaming and subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) and theaters all serving as outlets for content. Going forward, licensees are going to have to have a deep understanding of studio release patterns, and the implications that may have for merchandise timing and sales.

“I think it (streaming) is better sometimes because they are getting more people to see it sooner so people aren’t waiting three weeks [into a theatrical run] to get to the movies,” says Matthew Hoffman, CEO of Uncanny Brands, a Marvel and Star Wars licensee. “There are some hits and misses, but whether they go streaming or in theaters, I don’t care because I think it works either way.

Focus on brand, not specific film
I don’t think the studios are focused as much on a movie or show now as much as on the overall brand.  When you have a ‘universe’ of characters and content, you don’t have to be driven so much by a single property for a single period of time. Rather it’s part of a larger branding and just keeps on building.”

To be sure, the structured marketing programs and heavy promotion that traditionally surround tentpole films are still at the heart of studios’ strategies.  But the cinemas’ exclusive window is either shrinking or disappearing. Their long-ago 75-90-day exclusives before a film was released for home entertainment (in those days, prerecorded videocassettes) has plummeted during the past year (exacerbated by studios’ COVID-induced scrambling) and often varies by studio.

Window deals
For example, Warner Bros. recently signed an agreement with AMC giving the theater chain a 45-day window in 2022 before it releases the films to its HBO Max streaming service. That’s actually a pullback from this year’s practice of releasing all 17 of its films for streaming day and date with theaters. About a year ago, Universal agreed with AMC on a 17-day window, a deal that includes the theater owner getting a cut of premium streaming revenue.

This year, Disney so far `has released films direct to streaming (Luca), only in theaters (Shang Chi and this past weekend’s  Free Guy) and simultaneously on streaming and in cinemas (Black Widow. Likewise, ViacomCBS, whose platforms include Paramount Plus, released A Quiet Place II with a 45-day window before it appears elsewhere, but Infinite and soon Paw Patrol (Aug. 20) simultaneously in theaters and on streaming.

Aside from the uncertainty inherent for licensees when they place their bets on a tentpole a year or more in advance, no matter the platform, there’s also the matter of the entertainment companies’ willingness to share any data about their streaming platforms.

There are well-accepted measuring sticks for films (box office receipts) and TV shows (widely available Nielsen ratings), but the streaming services are fiercely protective of audience data – a factor which comes into play more for multi-episode TV series (for which licensing often kicks in on the fly, or for subsequent seasons).

Netflix has increasingly reported the number of viewers for specific shows, but Amazon, Apple, Disney and others have been reluctant to provide that information for their services, if at all. Nielsen launched an audience measuring service earlier this year for streaming, but it’s not as trusted as its data for broadcast and cable.

And even exact subscriber numbers are hard to come by. When ViacomCBS released earnings in July, it said it had 42 million global subscribers across its platforms — subscription-only Paramount Plus and Pluto TV and free services CBSN and TV Everywhere — but didn’t break down the numbers. The paucity of data has left licensees scouring social media metrics measure in search of some way to gauge consumer interest and viewership.

“There are so few properties right now that can [reliably predict] what the tentpoles are going to generate in actual consumer reactions” says one toy industry executive, likening the volatility to playing the stock market.  “There are more properties [given jumbled production and release schedules for the next 18-14 months], but not the same amount of shelf space… which makes for much more risk.” As he infers, retailers reportedly are being much more cautious about backing big films, reserving more of their open-to-buy for known quantities and characters.

One possible source for more shelf space? AMC is weighing a return to selling film-related merchandise in its theaters – a subject that periodically surfaces in the licensing and retail communities —  as another revenue stream.

“We would consider [selling merchandise],” AMC CEO Adam Aron said. “It’s intriguing. It’s complicated to send merchandise to 600 retail locations [theaters]. We have to make sure that it sells and that we don’t get stuck with inventory, [which can make] it a less profitable business than you might think. But we’re going to take a hard look.”