By Mark Seavy  

As the Easter sales season enters its final week, suppliers are faced with the twin challenges of tight consumer spending and near record prices for key ingredients like cocoa and eggs. 

And while it’s forecast that Easter sales in the U.S. will increase to $18.4 billion this year (growth of 2.7% to 3.7%), unit sales are expected to decline despite a longer shopping period this year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).  

The downturn in units is largely tied to soaring prices for ingredients. Cocoa prices, for example, rose to a record high of $12,475 per metric ton in December. That was up from $2,000 a year ago due to supply constraints in West Africa, where Ghana and the Ivory Coast account for 60% of global production. Prices, however, declined to $8,000 per metric ton this month. 

In the U.S., the price for eggs—a key ingredient for both Passover (April 12) and Easter (April 20)—rose to a record $6.23 per dozen in March from $2.99 a year ago due partly to an outbreak of bird flu in late 2024. Egg processor Cal Maine reported earlier this month that wholesale prices for its eggs doubled to $4.06 during Q1 ended March 31. 

“Spending at Easter will look different than it did a few years ago,” said Mike Ford, CEO of predictive data firm Skydeo. “When economic pressure hits, families don’t cancel the holidays—they just get creative. We’re seeing smaller baskets, more do-it-yourself activities, and fewer splurges. But the celebrations are still happening.” 

A similar shift in behavior occurred during the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, Ford said. Brands that “leaned into that shift with empathy, value, and creativity came out ahead,” he added. 

Among the items expected to be found in this year’s smaller baskets are products that feature beloved brands. This includes the hollowed-out chocolate Easter eggs that contain a small toy and carry brands like Animaccord’s Masha the Bear, Ludo Studio’s Bluey, and Acamar Film’s Bing Bunny, the latter two being produced by Belgian licensee Dolfin. Licensee Balocco also produces an ALVINN!! & The Chipmunks egg.  

The added value these brands provide is especially important because the retail price for chocolate Easter eggs in Italy is expected to be 10-20% higher this year, given the increase in cocoa prices, said Maurizio Distefano, President of Maurizio Distefano Licensing.  

There are more than 40 licenses being deployed for eggs in Italy, about 75% of which are aimed at children and with the remainder targeting adults through Netflix IPs and Diageo’s Baileys, Distefano said. The licensed chocolate Easter eggs containing a toy, which typically have a 50-cent cost, carry a 5-8% royalty rate depending on the IP.  

Outside of chocolate, it is unclear what the impact of rising costs will be on another Easter staple—egg dying kits. Many retail grocers are largely opting out of running their usual annual holiday egg promotions this year as supplies have only recently recovered, licensing industry executives said. Despite the decline in promotions, some retailers are pitching lower prices to consumers.  

The drug store chain CVS, for example, was highlighting egg dying kits under Minecraft and Disney IPs starting at $6. Arts and craft chain Michaels said that 43% of its total Easter sales so far have been for plaster, plastic, and crafted eggs. And Signature Brands, which owns the PAAS egg dying kit brand, forecast selling 10 million units this year. A survey of 120 consumers found 94% planned on decorating eggs this holiday, Signature reported.  

Additionally, some alternatives have launched in response to the higher egg prices. Kraft Heinz’s Jet-Puff marshmallow brand released a “Dip and Decorate” kit ($1.99) that contains large marshmallows that are about the same size as eggs. The kits also include six colors with miniature tongs for dipping and decorating pens for designs.  

“It’s such a sticky tradition,” Signature Brands CEO Joe Ens told NBC News. “And the reason for that, other than the tradition being so important to consumers, is if you really break down the cost of color dying kits, it is arguably the most affordable family tradition during any holiday.”