Hollywood’s continued reliance on franchises is putting pressure on all aspects of the licensing food chain to figure out how to maximize upside while limiting exposure to risk in an era in which consumers are being bombarded with entertainment options from all directions.

As has become the norm, the list we’ve assembled of films slated to be released over the next three years that are expected to have licensing programs is heavy with sequels, spin-offs and super heroes. By our count, there are at least 21 of them either are in production or in the planning stages.

(The list was assembled from a variety of sources, including information provided by studios and property owners, press reports and conversations with licensing executives. As always, it’s important to bear in mind that plans regularly change for competitive, creative, production and other reasons.)

Everyone in the licensing business is faced with the challenge of forecasting the licensing and merchandising performance of those films. While the franchizification of the theatrical film business brings the obvious benefits of audience familiarity and a track record of sales, licensees and retailers are increasingly seeking ways to hedge their bets on big sequels.

Several big franchise films in the past year, while generating big volume in consumer products, fell short of expected sales levels of their prior installments, and short of guarantees, say licensees.

As a way of managing risk, some are balancing their commitments for a new movie with the license and products for “classic” iterations of the same franchise. They say they can speed supply and play catch-up on the new film if there turns out to be high demand. For example, apparel supplier Changes frequently tests the waters with classic goods as a bellwether for how products tied to a franchise’s sequel or spinoff might sell, says the company’s Will Thompson.

The sheer number of franchise films mitigates against any one or two of them achieving outsized volume. “We are trying to navigate the theatrical releases because [consumers’] attention span now is so [short]. If a film doesn’t perform we get stuck with inventory, so we have to be more risk averse,” says another licensee executive. “It is better to carry more inventory of the classic and go low and lean with the newer release and if it hits, we can react quickly.”

In addition to the sequels and spinoffs, there are a range of franchises being introduced to a new generation of theater-goers. Disney is readying animated remakes of Dumbo and Aladdin, as well as a live-action version of the 1994 hit The Lion King. Meanwhile NBCUniversal is releasing The Voyage of Dr. Doolittle (April 12, 2019) as a retelling of the 1967 classic. That studio also is slated to release the first extensions of DreamWorks franchises since it acquired the studio in 2016. How to Train Your Dragon 3 and Trolls 2 are both slated for 2019. And MGM is readying The Addams Family, returning Charles Addams’ fabled cartoons to the big screen for the first time since 1998, this time in stop-motion animation.

At studios rely on the tried and true, the overlaying of movie release windows is creating greater competition at retail for shelf space (both physical and virtual). That’s exacerbated for this fall and beyond by the absence of Toys R Us, once a prime volume generator and promotional partner for tentpole films. Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, Party City and others are said to be increasing their toy departments – particularly for holiday – but that’s not necessarily true other product categories (i.e. apparel and accessories and domestics) categories of products, where non-licensed and private label items in some cases are replacing licensed goods.

“I think we are being a little bit more cautious” in deciding whether to support new releases,” says Thompson, whose company is licensed for apparel for Warner Bros.’ upcoming Shazam. “It is not the type of environment where you can throw money around. When things get a little leaner you have to focus on the safer bets that will produce good financial results as opposed to doing a huge amount of prospecting” with new releases.”

There’s volume to be had, and the advent of short-lead print-on-demand services and technologies can alleviate some of the pressure in soft lines and some other categories. But even a company such as Trevco, while able to deal with sudden surges via its print-on-demand business in apparel and mugs, still “makes sure to choose evergreen properties that have history, rather than new movies which typically have a short lifespan,” says CEO Trevor George.

It’s a balancing act for everyone.

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