When Disney last week announced revisions to its film release schedule, it was the latest in a radical re-ordering of movie slates that will carry well into 2021. (See our chart for the latest.)

And while licensees have long dealt with film delays, they’ve never experienced the domino effect that’s taken hold during the past several weeks amid the COVID-19 outbreak.

Theater openings?

Although AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron expressed hope last week its theaters would re-open by mid-June, film studios aren’t taking any chances. For example, Disney delayed Mulan and Black Widow – originally slated for March 27 and May 1 — to July 27 and Nov. 6, respectively, pushing Jungle Cruise and Eternal to summer 2021 and Feb. 14, 2021. If everything holds to form, Mulan would be among the first releases since blanket delays started last month.

Sony moved many of its tentpoles to 2021, including Ghostbusters: Afterlife which jumped to March 5, 2021, displacing Uncharted, which shifted to Oct. 8, 2021. Kevin Hart’s drama, Fatherhood, actually moved forward to Oct. 23 from Jan. 15, 2021. And Universal shifted the sequel Sing 2 to Dec. 22, 2021, putting a film adaption of the Broadway hit Wicked on indefinite delay.

In addition, Disney and Universal moved to make some films available day-and-date with their original film release. Disney is going to release Artemis Fowl, which was scheduled for May 29, on its Disney+ streaming service this summer, foregoing theaters. And Universal’s Trolls World Tour will be available for streaming this Friday – when it was due for the big screen — on Amazon Prime, Apple TV and other services.

The rapidfire film rescheduling will make for a crowded Q4 and lead to heightened competition for consumer attention. For example, Black Widow’s push to November will put it in competition with other major releases including the rescheduled James Bond: No Time To Die (Nov. 25), plus the previously slated Godzilla vs. King Kong (Nov. 20), Clifford the Big Red Dog (Nov. 13) and Dune (Nov. 20). And Top Gun: Maverick’s delay to Dec. 23 moves it into a window with the already scheduled Croods 2(Dec. 23), West Side Story (Dec. 18) and The Last Duel (Dec. 25).

The wholesale change of the movie calendar also will leave licensees fighting for already tight shelf space and potentially speed efforts to increase their ecommerce business, says McFarlane Toys CEO Todd McFarlane.

McFarlane has collectibles for Wonder Woman 1984, whose release was pushed back two months to Aug. 7 on a boat from China to arrive in early May, three months before the new release date, says McFarlane. The company will likely have to warehouse some inventory until stores widely re-open, delaying the revenue the products would generate. It’s a situation that’s likely to confront lots of licensees large and small, depending on the manufacturing and shipping lead times they were working under in order to meet originally scheduled shelf dates.

“We are still trying to figure out whether we should hold it in the warehouse until the movie comes or make some of it available [earlier] at retail,” says McFarlane, whose company sells through Walmart and Target, both of who remain open. “But in any event, when it hits retail, will there be customers, given that we expect a cutback in discretionary spending?”

Trends International slowed plans for film-related posters and other items as release schedules firmed up, says Senior Licensing Manager Paul Beck, whose company has licenses for nine of the upcoming films including Top Gun and Ghostbusters.

“So much hinges on not only when retailers [and theaters] start opening again, but also begin to report sales figures comparable to the level before the virus,” says Beck. “Obviously Q2 is going to be impacted, but it’s still hard to predict how long business will be disrupted.”

How long business will be disrupted remains the unanswered question.