In a year in which everything is at least somewhat off kilter, so is Halloween.

In a clear illustration of both the health concerns and economic damage from the pandemic, only 58% of Americans responding to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) annual purchase intent survey in early September say they expect to participate in Halloween celebrations this year, down from 68% in the same survey a year ago.

Turning homeward
But those that do participate plan to do it in a bigger way – though with an interesting twist. Planned per capita spending is up 6.8%, led by a 13.8% increase in planned spending on home décor. That would offset a 3.7% decline in spending on costumes. Part of the drop may be because this is expected to be a more kid-centric holiday this year; adult costumes typically cost more.

“The people with kids will be more likely to dress up, but it will likely be more repurposed costumes than brand new,” says Disguise’s Tara Hefter. “People will probably overspend on décor; you are going to try and celebrate at home, so you need the decorations for it.”

Unexpected drivers
The tentpole films that typically drive a big chunk of licensed costume sales haven’t been there this year, so major licensed drivers have had to come from elsewhere, i.e. streaming platforms and videogames.

It’s been an odd season for everyone in the Halloween business; many retailers delayed installation of Halloween displays for up to two weeks until mid-September as they moved to sell off back-to-school inventory — merchandise that fills the same slot on many store floors, says former Rubie’s executive and seasonal marketing veteran Stephen Stanley. And some retailers have scaled back on their plans because of the uncertainty; Party City chopped the number of Halloween City popups it’s operating this year to 25 from 275 a year ago.

Others are expanding, says Stanley; Dollar Tree for the first time is promoting $1 masks featuring Marvel and DC Comics characters, while Five Below has greatly increased its assortment of Halloween products, he says. And Kroger is launching a pallet program this month merchandising Hershey’s candy alongside Rubies’ candy bowls featuring Baby Yoda, Batman, Slimer and others.

And other retailers who traditionally aren’t big Halloween players, are tying into the holiday with feel-good, socially distanced celebrations

“Where sales have been hurt this year is with specialty retailers that had to close their doors for so many months after already being hurt by online sales in recent years,” says Stanley. “It is good and healthy to see the value and craft retailers come in and support Halloween. It is also sad to see the mom and pops getting hurt so badly, but the retail marketplace on a collective basis is really embracing Halloween this year.”