As cinemas gradually re-open globally with capacity and seating restrictions, will consumers return with the same fervor after a year or more  during which “the big screen” has been a TV?

That’s a question still in search of an answer, and one critical to the licensing community, which pre-pandemic banked on steady product sales generated by franchise and other licensing-heavy films. To some extent, consumers “flocked” back, as theaters in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco quickly sold out at 25% capacity when Disney released Raya and the Last Dragon on March 5. The film has pulled in $52.6 million in global box office revenue in its first two weeks, but it also was available for streaming on Disney+ (as a $30 premium offering).

Normal rhythm
The rhythm of the release of products and promotions surrounding Raya resembled those of films released pre-pandemic; toy licensee Jakks Pacific had product on U.S. store shelves a month in advance and McDonald’s rolled out a Happy Meals promotion on March 9.

“We are very pleased with how our premiere access strategy has played out so far and they are two different lenses,” Disney CEO Bob Chapek told CNBC on Wednesday. “One is through the lens of a post-COVID world where people are just now becoming comfortable with the re-opening of theaters and going in and watching a movie. The important dynamic is how the consumer behavior has been changed by the pandemic, in terms of people wanting the ability to have more flexibility to watch movies wherever, how and when they want.”

Not Just Tentpoles
To be sure, licensees are showing no signs of abandoning tentpole theatrical films, but are rather tempering their strategies to include relatively new-found openness to material shown on streaming platforms.

Yet, other licensees, especially those with toys and other hardgoods that require 12-18 months to develop, were forced by the delay of upwards of 40 films in 2020, to either warehouse their inventory or risk selling movie-related products long before a delayed movie entered theaters. For example, Funko’s Wonder Woman 1984 products were offered (to less than rousing success) to consumers six months in advance of the film’s ultimate release in both theaters and on Disney+ on Christmas Day after having been postponed three times last year.

While Funko is “insanely excited” about the film and streaming release slates for this year and in 2022, “we have learned a reliance on theatrical events to drive the majority of business is not a sound business strategy,” said Funko CEO Brian Mariotti, noting that more than 60% of the Funko’s annual revenue comes from evergreen properties.

At the same time, retailers have been more conservative this year in placing orders and less willing to place bets on untested properties, say licensing executives. This year’s franchise film releases begin in May starting Black Widow on May 7. But Hasbro product tied to Black Widow has been available for the better part of a year, starting with pre-orders that Walmart began taking on Jan. 23, 2020 in advance of what was expected to be a May 2020 release.

“While the near-term theatrical landscape remains uncertain, we see a path to its return and the opportunities in streaming and linear now and into the future are clear and compelling for both viewership and merchandise,” Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner said last month.

Giant theater operator AMC Entertainment had to “walk a tight rope in 2020” and proceed cautiously this year, AMC CEO Adam Aron said. The chain has opened 92% of its 620 U.S. theaters, up from 67% at year-end 2020 and more than 30% of those in other markets around the world. With the latter, it’s been a patchwork of re-openings and continued closures. For example, indoor theaters will return in the UK on May 17, with drive-ins scheduled to open next month in the UK (April 12) and Scotland (April 26).

In Germany and Greece, re-openings are planned for next week (March 22), while in Italy the return will likely be after April 6, following a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the Lombardy and Calabria regions. Cinemas in Los Angeles open today (Friday). And overall, AMC’s business will return to “normalized levels” by Q4, Aron said.

“Our focus is no longer on survival, but now has turned instead to directly a surge in moviegoing and on the recovery of the company,” Aron said.