Even before the pandemic struck last year, film distribution was starting to undergo a sea change, with windows between theatrical release and availability on home platforms shrinking. The COVID-19 crisis only supercharged the shift.

But as film releases pick up a more predictable cadence, tentpoles receive traditional promotional pushes and cinemas reopen — 75% are in operation in the U.S. and have fully returned in the UK, China and other global markets as of this writing — where does that leave the business of  film-licensed merchandise in a post-pandemic world?

A Changed Model?
Under the time-honored model, licensed products typically arrived at retail 3-4 weeks before a major film’s release, staying on shelves for some period of time afterwards before retailers and consumers shifted to the next new thing.

Over the past year, as planned major 2020 releases were pushed off for months or years, licensed products manufacturers were forced to warehouse finished goods or postpone production and try to renegotiate commitments. At the same time, theater owners and studios continued to tussle.

As we’ve reported, Warner Bros. is releasing its 16 films this year in theaters and on HBO Max at the same time. And AMC Entertainment and Universal struck a deal under which films are available for premium VOD 17 days after their theatrical release.

Plusses and Challenges
For the licensing industry, the prominence of streaming has both positive and challenging aspects. Feature films released simultaneously theatrically and via an in-home platform get the benefit of a traditional marketing campaign geared toward opening weekend, with the added chance to take advantage of the long tail that streaming can provide. On the other hand, it becomes harder for retailers to time consumer demand for merchandise if too big a portion of the audience decides to watch the film at home a few weeks later.

These all will be issues as the film industry seems poised to return to a more standard summer blockbuster season – a period stretching in the U.S. from May to Labor Day, and for similar periods elsewhere in the world. If the past two weekends are any indication, there is reason for optimism.

Disney’s Cruella took in $37.4 million ($21.3 million in North America; $16.1 million elsewhere) in box office revenue on 3,892 screens over Memorial Day Weekend and so far has generated a U.S. total of $80.2 million. It  also was released at the same time on Disney Plus, at a $30 premium. A Quiet Place II also was released Memorial Day weekend has so far produced $138 million in revenue ($88 million U.S.; $50 million elsewhere).

The other licensing-friendly blockbusters such as Fast & Furious 9 (F9) (June 25) and Black Widow (July 9) are on schedule. And Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway and In The Heights are on tap for this weekend and likely will drive traffic as coronavirus restrictions ease in the U.S. Overall, the film slate also is backloaded for the second half and the declines in box office revenue are expected to ease to a 20% decrease from 2019 levels by the fourth quarter, compared to 75% in the second quarter, says Eric Wold, an analyst at JP Morgan.

“There are really huge movies all around,” Cineworld CEO Moshe Greidinger, whose chain operates under Regal Cinemas in the U.S. and has 800 theaters across 10 territories globally. “In the U.K., everybody is waiting to see the new Bond. The rumors about the new Top Gun: Maverick are outstanding, and it may be one of the most highly anticipated movies in the U.S. and worldwide. And in December we have the highly anticipated Matrix 4. One by one, the movies are very promising and we have stabilized and we are going forward with studios.”

Here’s what’s on tap through year-end:

June 18
Luca

June 25
F9

July 9

Black Widow 

July 16

Space Jam: A New Legacy 

July 23

Snake Eyes: GI Joe Origins 

July 30

Jungle Cruise

The Green Knight 

Aug. 6

The Suicide Squad

Paw Patrol: The Movie 

Sept. 17

The Boss Baby: Family Business 

Sept. 24

Venom: Let There Be Carnage 

Oct 8:

James Bond: No Time to Die

The Addams Family 2 

Nov. 5

Eternals

Clifford the Big Red Dog 

Nov. 11

Ghostbusters: Afterlife 

Nov. 19

Top Gun: Maveric 

Nov. 24

Encanto 

Dec. 10

West Side Story 

Dec. 17

Spider-Man: No Way Home 

Dec. 22

The Matrix 4

Hotel Transylvania 4

Downton Abbey 2