As always, major retailers around the world have been releasing lists of “top” toys as a way to focus attention on the upcoming holiday season; this year, it’s been accompanied by a message to buy early, as even consumers are now conversant with the words “supply chain.”

And those lists are populated with a healthy collection of licensed properties, based on a mix of digital properties (i.e. Fortnite, Roblox, Pokemon, Super Mario), preschool properties classic and new (such as Paw Patrol, Bluey, Cocomelon, and Blue’s Clues, among others) and mega-franchises (Batman, Spider Man, Harry Potter, to name three).

Not surprisingly, in an era in which theatrical releases have been difficult to predict with any certainty, toys based on major films are few and far between, with Warner Bros.’ Space Jam 2 (released in July) most in evidence.

The consensus among industry executives and retailers is that big brand toys will be top sellers as retailers rely more heavily on proven properties. Overall, a scan of several Top 10 lists revealed that 20-40% of the toys appearing on them rely on licensed IP, according to our estimates.

“There are lots of brands we’re excited about for Christmas 2021,” Gary Grant, Founder and Executive Chairman of UK toy retailer The Entertainer, told Good Housekeeping in the UK. “This includes Paw Patrol, following the movie this summer. Other popular brands will include Cocomelon, Super Mario, L.O.L. Surprise, Barbie and Bluey.”

Some observations:

Target’s Top Toys list is broken into subclassifications. The Inspire New Stories section has only a couple of licensed properties (Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon as well as an Animal Planet SKU). Licenses are sprinkled liberally throughout the rest of the list, including a pair of licensed Lego sets (Harry Potter and Star Wars) listed as exclusives.

Tesco’s list of its top ten toys for Christmas (heavily influenced by “Increased family play time created by the recent lockdown”) includes Star Wars, Jurassic World and Paw Patrol. The company also sees “a huge ongoing demand for kidult toys – trusted brands that still bring joy to grown-ups as much as their kids.”

About 40% of the items listed on Amazon’s “Toys We Love” list (issued in August) carry licenses, including a full range of entertainment properties, as well as corporate brands such as National Geographic and Black + Decker. Several licensed items from a variety of brands are labeled as an “Amazon Exclusive.”

Only three of the ten items listed on Walmart’s  “Top Rated By Kids Toy List” are licensed (Batman, Bluey and Monster Jam), but the others are from the core lines of brands that are heavily licensed out (Hot, Wheels, Barbie, L.O.L. Surprise, and Rainbow High).

About half the nearly 60 items listed by Macy’s on “Geoffrey’s Hot Toy List” (calling attention to its adoption of the Toys R Us brand for toy departments in 400 stores next year, and that it’s now operating toysrus.com) carry licenses.

The list of top ten toys issued by the UK’s John Lewis includes only two licensed SKU’s: and exclusive Scalextric Batman vs. Superman racing set and a Harry Potter games compendium. There’s also a third item that’s at least license-ish: a mini wooden supermarket set bearing the logo of sister retailer Waitrose.