The feature film landscape seems to be solidifying – a welcome development for licensees and retailers who depend on big films to generate sales revenue and promotional punch.

And theater chains and studios seem to be working through the ongoing issue of windows between theatrical release and availability on home streaming platforms.

An End to Chaos?
To be sure, the studios’ film slates have always been subject to shifting release dates. But the pandemic created utter chaos for, among many others, licensees and retailers as theaters were forced to shut and tentpole films pushed back. Now with 90% of Cinemark’s 331 U.S. theaters open at 50% capacity and many theaters globally slowly returning — especially those in China — there’s some optimism for the first time in a year that release dates are relatively predictable. AMC is operating nearly all of its North American theaters at 25-50% of capacity. In the UK, all theaters are scheduled to reopen mid-month at 50% capacity with a 1,000 person limit.

The reopening of theaters and rollout of films will depend on vaccination rates and the “state of the virus,” Cinemark CFO Sean Gamble said. In Latin America, where 40% of Cinemark’s 200 theaters across 15 countries are open, a full re-opening might be 2-3 months behind the U.S., Gamble said.

2021 ‘a Transitory Year’
“2021 does remain a transitory year, but we believe that recovery kicks into gear in Q3 and Q4 and returns to a more normalized year in 2022, which is stacked with [licensing-friendly] mega movies from giant franchise titles” including Jurassic World Dominion (June 11, 2022); Minions: Rise of Gru (July 1, 2022); Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (July 8, 2022); The Marvels (Nov. 11, 2022) and Avatar 2 (Dec. 16, 2022, Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi said.

AMC CEO Aaron Aron is more cautious, maintaining that the recovery “hasn’t started yet, although you can feel and taste it. Literally no one knows what the pace of a faster recovery will be. But it’s clear there’ll be much more flawless execution needed at AMC and by AMC to energize the recovery and to benefit it.” AMC has 590 theaters in North America and 390 in the Middle East and Europe, with the UK (112 theaters) and Italy (42) its largest markets there.

The return to a more predictable film release cadence is welcome sign for licensees, which have faced the twin challenges of having to warehouse film-related products while renegotiating licensing agreements to match new release calendars.

Among the first promising signs was Godzilla vs. Kong, which was released in international markets on March 24 and in the U.S. on March 31, and has generated $422 million in box office revenue globally. And Demon Slayer: Infinity Train, which opened in Japan on Oct. 16 and in the U.S. on April 23, has tallied $435 million in box office sales, the most ever for an anime-based feature film. And those were before what’s expected to be a strong second half release slate that includes, among others, Fast & Furious 9 (June 25); Black Widow (July 9); James Bond: No Time to Die (Oct. 8); Ghostbusters Afterlife (Nov. 10); and Spider-Man 3: No Way Home (Dec. 17).

“Release dates always shift around and move,” Zoradi said. “And in today’s environment with PVOD and streaming, it’s going to continue. But what we’ve seen is that the vast majority of the titles now look like they’re in their slots. Studios are very anxious at this point to get them out. And they’ve all kind of locked into their key spots.”

Replacing Windows
In terms of the window between theatrical release and availability on home platforms, Cinemark late last week announced agreements with Warner Bros, Disney, Paramount and  Sony that build on a deal it reached in November with Universal. Similarly, AMC struck an agreement with Universal last year for films to be available on streaming services 17 days after theatrical release, and apparently reached an agreement with Warner Bros Pictures.

Cinemark also is moving to expand theatrical release of Netflix films, which began last year with The Christmas Chronicles 2. It will release Netflix’s Army of the Dead in 200 theaters on May 14, Independent chains Landmark Theatres (52 cinemas) and Alamo Drafthouse (39) also will offer the film. AMC plans add focus on “alternative” film distribution systems including premium video-on-demand (PVOD), Aron said.

“This (theatrical release of streamed films) adds more value for the streamer, because the film has had significant theatrical exposure, which clearly helps in the consumers’ minds when they look at what they want to watch,” Zoradi said.