Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2023, holiday sales grew by 4.3% in the same period.

A key driver of overall retail sales growth in the upcoming season is expected to be e-commerce. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce will likely grow between 7% and 9%, year-over-year, during the 2024-2025 holiday season to between $289 billion and $294 billion this season.

“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income (DPI), combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “Meanwhile, inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”

“Following a sharp rise in spending post-pandemic, this season’s retail sales are expected to moderately increase in line with trends over the past decade,” said Michael Jeschke, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP, and Retail & Consumer Products leader. “Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending. While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”

Deloitte is forecasting a 2.3% to 3.3% increase in total 2024 holiday sales compared with the same period in 2023. Retail sales between November 2023 and January 2024 (seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline) grew 4.3% and totaled $1.54 trillion according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Deloitte is forecasting a 7% to 9% increase in 2024 holiday e-commerce sales compared with the same period in 2023. E-commerce sales between November 2023 and January 2024 (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 10.1% totaling an estimated $270 billion.