By Mark Seavy

Global consumers will spread spending “very purposely” in 2025 with an emphasis on discounts and value, according to several research firms.

The most optimistic of those firms, NielsenIQ—whose survey covered 17,000 online respondents from 23 countries—forecast that consumer spending will increase 6% in 2025. That growth will come as the annual inflation rate, at least in the U.S., eases.

Forrester Research, meanwhile, projected that consumer spending would increase approximately 3% next year, with price inflation for consumer packaged goods (CPG) remaining “higher than average” in Latin America and Africa. Latin America, for example, has seen a 9% rise in monthly prices, according to Forrester.

There is also significant uncertainty with a new U.S. presidential administration taking office in January, which has promised stiff tariffs on imported goods. Increased tariffs would affect the economies of the countries on which they are imposed and could also lead to higher prices in the U.S. for consumer goods. Any increase in prices because of tariffs is expected to result in a pullback in consumer spending across the U.S., something President-Elect Donald Trump’s administration will seek to avoid.

“With a new U.S. presidential administration set to take office in 2025, a different set of economic policies will come into play, shaping consumer sentiment and driving spending behavior,” said Dipanjan Chatterjee, VP and Principal Analyst at Forrester. “We aren’t sure quite yet exactly what these policies will be—just as for brands, campaign promises often diverge significantly from the delivered experience. But from what we can discern both from policy chatter and preliminary market movements, the pace of monthly consumer packaged goods (CPG) inflation continues to slow.”

Yet during the first six months of this year, there was a “determined” shift from cautious to intentional consumption habits. Consumers are willing to spend more but remain conscious of potential changes, said Lauren Fernandes, VP for Global Thought Leadership at NielsenIQ. “Consumers are seeking value with every purchase in multiple ways. They are spreading their spending very purposefully—and expect to leverage any excess in strategic ways in 2025 and beyond.”

As a result, NielsenIQ is projecting that global consumer spending will increase by $3.2 trillion in 2025.

But despite the potential easing of inflation and growing optimism, interest rates remain high, there is uncertainty in geopolitics—including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East—and consumers remain concerned about the job market, analysts said.

That uncertainty is expected to lead to the U.S. economy growing 2% in Q4 2024, down from 3.1% a year earlier, said Satyam Panday, Global Ratings Chief at the ratings agency Standard & Poor. That will result in the U.S. economy increasing 2.4% this year before slowing to 1.8% growth in 2025, Panday said.

As consumers navigate the global economy, they are “redefining” discount shopping, Fernandes said. Consumer are focused on a “hybrid approach” in which they are seeking discounts without any decline in quality, she said. This is often being accomplished through a focus on packaging, with 65% of respondents to the Nielsen survey reporting that they prefer to buy items in larger bulk packs. This trend could lead to a spike in sales through off-price retailers (T.J. Maxx, HomeGoods, Ross Stores, Burlington), discounters (Walmart, Target), and clubs (Costco, Sam’s Club).

“Brands that can deliver on consumer expectations, innovate often, and deliver affordable value in multiple ways will discover a world of opportunities previously unavailable to them,” Fernandes said.