Birth rate slump is no match for “kidult” buyers

Paris, France —   Toy sales declined 0.6% in 2024 across 12 global markets (G12), including Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States,  according to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service.

Sales of licensed toys increased 8% and accounted for 34% of the total market.

These positive results highlight both the continued appeal of new and evergreen, or sometimes nostalgia-based franchises, as well as sports-driven merchandise in driving sales. Pokémon retained its crown as the top-selling toy property globally, followed by familiar classics like Barbie, Marvel Universe, Hot Wheels, and Star Wars. Notably, LEGO Botanicals emerged as the top gaining property, reflecting the trend towards toys targeted at adult consumers, tapping into the mindfulness trend and toys for better mental health.

In 2024, the average selling price was flat year-over-year (-0.2%), following four consecutive years of growth.

Five of the 11 toys supercategories tracked by Circana experienced a year-over-year dollar sales increase within the G12. Building sets grew for the fifth consecutive year and captured the top spot in terms of both sales and growth, up 14%. Explorative and other toys also grew, by 5%, and sales of vehicles increased by 3%. The plush and games and puzzles segments each increased sales by 1%.

Sales of collectible toys grew almost 5% to represent 18% of overall volumes and 15% of value sales. On-trend small collectibles figures, trading card games, and plush toys fueled sales year-round thanks to some manufacturers refreshing product lines to appeal to fans of all ages.

“Toys sales in 2024 reflect a strong contrast in consumer behavior – between shoppers making very rational decisions, buying on deals and on an as needed basis, whilst at the same time clearly indulging on feel-good toys to fuel their fandom or to give themselves some respite,” said Frederique Tutt, global toys advisor at Circana. “Sales of collectible toys have never been as high as in 2024.”

U.S. toy market snapshot

Looking at the U.S. market specifically, which accounts for more than half of toy sales across the G12, year-over-year dollar sales were flat, slightly outperforming the G12 with sales down 0.3%. Decline rates across dollars and units have slowed substantially compared to the big drop in 2023 when dollars declined by 7%.

In 2024, three of the 11 supercategories posted dollar growth in the U.S. In line with the G12, building sets was the fastest-growing, up 16%, driven by LEGO Botanicals. Sales of explorative and other toys grew by 10%, led by NBA, and vehicles increased by 2% driven by Monster Jam.

“Toy sales experienced stabilization in 2024 as the industry moved from a state of correction to consistency,” said Juli Lennett, U.S. Toys Industry Advisor at Circana. “Stabilizing tailwinds including growth in the adult toy market helped balance out the headwinds including higher grocery prices and rising consumer debt. In 2025, I expect we will see the toy industry move from consistency to creativity; we have a stronger lineup of highly anticipated toyetic movies coming in 2025 and 2026 to stimulate growth for the industry.”

“This year we expect the global toy market to be positively impacted by the box office and popular series’ on streaming platforms, continuing to fuel young and mature consumer appetites for toys and collectible merchandise,” said Tutt. “These factors should help make up for the declining birth rates across most regions and economic uncertainty impacting consumers’ spending mindset.”