By Mark Seavy 

The frenzied shopping that once accompanied Black Friday and Cyber Monday eased again this year as deep discounts that historically drove the shopping event have shifted to year-round offerings, licensing industry executives said. 

Malls and stores still saw crowds during the holiday weekend but gone were long lines outside store in predawn hours. Instead, consumers were more selective in their purchases, having grown accustomed to 40-50% discounts. And while consumer spending during the holiday season is expected to increase 4-6%, due largely to higher tariff-related prices, unit volumes were expected to rise 1-2%, said Sunny Mehra, Executive Director at UBS Global Wealth Management.  

Consumers had already spent $79.7 billion in the 23 days prior to Black Friday (up 7.5% from last year’s pace), according to Adobe. And on Black Friday, U.S. sales were up 9.1% at $11.8 billion, while globally they rose 6.1% to $79 billion. 

The discounts that historically have driven sales were 20-30% online during Cyber Monday, according to Adobe. In stores, there were 40-50% price cuts on Black Friday across a range of products, including large-size Bluey, Pokémon, and Minions plush ($25) at Walmart as well as on Target’s private label Goodfellow apparel and Pillowfort bedding and storage. 

“The sales that retailers were running weren’t all that much different from those that were available throughout the year,” said Kristy Yvars, VP of Licensing and Marketing at footwear supplier The SG Companies. 

In some cases, consumers were trading up to higher ticket items to take full advantage of discount promotions. But, at the same time, many consumers were limiting the number of products they purchased. In footwear, for example, sales of adult shoes adorned with entertainment IP were slow as parents many times decided to forgo their purchase in favor of buying children’s items, said Jack Gindi, CEO at Ground Up.  

Those decisions were perhaps prompted by $5-$10 increases in prices in some categories like footwear, where certain products like hand-stitched slippers are rarely produced outside China, which has been subject to higher tariffs, industry executives said. Walmart told analysts its prices increased 1.3% in Q3. 

“There are pockets that are doing well and others that are challenging,” Gindi said. “Seasonal products have been strong but in casual footwear it depends on the construction. It has been hit or miss, and we are seeing the consumer sensitive to elevated prices.” 

The full impact of higher prices is hitting products late this year. Once consumers adjust to the increased retail tags, prices should go back to a more normal rate and the headwinds of tariffs should get better, according to analysts. With these changes, the U.S. economy “could do a little bit better” in 2026. 

Gains in the U.S. economy could auger better balance sheets for retailers. Pop culture retailer Five Below’s Black Friday sales met its forecast and the 1,900-store chain is forecasting a 14.7% gain in Q4 sales to $1.58-$1.61 billion on a 6-8% rise in same store sales, CFO Daniel Sullivan told analysts in releasing earnings last week.  

Five Below’s annual per store sales are running at $2.4 million, a sum last achieved in 2021, said Charles Grom, Managing Director at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors. 

On the department store side, Macy’s posted a 3.4% increase in same-store sales in Q3, its strongest gain in more than three years. Net sales fell slightly to $4.71 billion (compared to $4.73 billion a year earlier), reflecting the closing of poorly performing stores. But that still outperformed analysts’ projections for $4.55 billion. 

“Looking at the evolving retail landscape, consumers are more discerning about how and where they spend their dollars,” Macy’s CEO Tony Spring said. “They want curated product assortments, consistent service, and seamless omnichannel shopping.”