Licensing executives have more questions than answers about the shape of the business in the year ahead, according to responses to our end of year flash survey. (We did, too!)

When will live events return?
There’s a general belief that business will be depressed at least through the first half of 2021. It’s “very difficult to predict and forecast the first two quarters,” writes one U.S. agent, who is “more optimistic for… Q3 and Q4 2021.”

Says another U.S. licensor: “I don’t expect 2021 to be a magic turnaround year, I think it is going to take more time to get things back to a new normal.  My biggest question is, when will people go to live events again?”

Hopefully, writes one U.S.-based brand owner – who forecasts a “continued growth trajectory” – there will be “less disruption because we know better what to expect with COVID, [and have instituted] better supply change management.  I hope we can get back to live trade shows; I believe a lot of the networking is lost in translation at virtuals.”

What will retail look like?
One UK licensee has questions about an altered media and marketing environment: “[I’m] uncertain [about the future], as the way consumers are exposed to brands and content has changed significantly, and this will have an impact on retail sales.”

Adds a U.S. licensor: “What will the specialty retail landscape look like? Will people go back to malls and shopping centers?”

As we’ve reported, there’s more attention and resources being devoted to eCommerce, given the pandemic-accelerated shift in consumer buying patterns.

A French brand owner expressed concerned about the “capability for small licensees (the ones that develop trendy collabs) to survive.”

Light on the horizon
But even among the dour forecasts and predictions, there’s an overriding sense of cautious optimism among most of the respondents. “We’re anticipating conservative growth through 2021 and working to manage everyone’s expectations for increased revenues,” writes one U.S.-based agent.

“Hopefully the same or a little better than this year,” says another U.S. agent about 2021. “We are more than holding our own, which is great!”