With global box office revenue in October setting pandemic-era records, the film business appears to be finally delivering what the licensing industry craves: stability and predictability.

After 18 months during which release schedules were upended and new strategies emerged – some theatrical windows were cut in half to 45 days not to mention direct-to-streaming or films being released simultaneously in cinemas and for streaming – U.S. box office revenue rose in October to $637.9 million, the best of any month in 2021, according to Comscore.

Cinemark (521 theaters across the U.S. and Latin America) and AMC Theatres (950 theaters across the U.S., Europe and the Far East), both reported that October revenue was the highest in the pandemic era, though they didn’t specify numbers.

Still well behind pre-pandemic business
But that doesn’t mean that we’re anywhere close to a full recovery of theatrical attendance. As of Oct. 31, said Comscore, U.S. box office revenue for the year was $3.1 billion, a 45% increase from 2020, but down a whopping 66% from 2019.

Of course, for the licensing community, the predictability of cinemas being opened and stocked with films is only part of the equation – though a major one. There’s also the ongoing tussle among theater owners, studios and streaming services over who gets to show what when, and how that affects the theatrical marketing budgets that are a large part of what a licensee gets in return for its royalty payments.

AMC launched a $25 million on September 12 on a U.S. advertising campaign featuring actress Nicole Kidman,  “AMC Theatres. We Make Movies Better”, to promote the fact that its theaters are fully open.

The month benefitted from several high-profile releases such as The Adams Family 2 (MGM), No Time to Die (MGM); Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Marvel), Dune (Warner Bros.) shifting to October from a more typical mid-summer, as revenue topped the previous pandemic high of $583.6 million in July, Comscore said. In China, currently the world’s largest box office market, revenue hit $1.18 billion, up 19% from 2020 and the second-highest-grossing month ever. The revenue trailed only the same month in pre-pandemic 2019 ($1.29 billion).

And while monthly revenue for a single film hasn’t yet topped the hallowed ground of $100 million, a film release slate that starts Friday (Nov. 5) with Eternals (Marvel), is followed two weeks later by Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony) and anchored by Spider-Man: Now Way Home (Dec. 17, Sony) gives optimism that momentum will carry into 2022.

There’s reason for optimism given that cinemas are expected to be open at full capacity in 2022, something that was only achieved this year in the second half. For example, in France, which boasts Europe’s biggest theatrical market in terms of admissions, cinemas reopened after a seven-month shutdown on May 19 at 35% capacity and gradually built to full capacity on June 30.  Both Cinemark and AMC closed their cinemas at the start of the pandemic in the U.S. in March 2020 and began a phased reopening with limited capacity that summer.

On a side note, the major theater chains are being joined by a relatively new entrant in the cinema business: Netflix. The streaming service opened its third cinema the Bay Theater at Palisades Village in Southern California on Oct. 22, providing yet another venue for its original productions. The third cinema – Netflix opened the Paris Theater in New York in 2019 and is restoring the Egyptian Theater in Los Angeles, CA with plans for reopening it in 2022 — came as the company moves to expand beyond streaming, which has yielded some surprise licensing hits including most recently Squid Game and Stranger Things in 2017.

The arrival of Netflix-owned cinemas comes as AMC and other chains will no longer rely on “what’s always worked before,” CEO Adam Aron has said.

What that will mean for the film and licensing businesses remains to be seen.