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Retail Inventory Increases Amid Shifting Consumer Demand image

Retail Inventory Increases Amid Shifting Consumer Demand

Increased shipping and freight costs amid shifting consumer demand will persist into 2023 as retailers work through excess inventory. That much was clear as Walmart, Target, and TJX Companies released earnings this week.

Inventory—particularly in electronics, furniture, and apparel—built up in the first quarter as consumers shifted purchases to food and beverages as well as other essentials amid price inflation. The excess inventory was largely tied to retailers bringing items in up to two months earlier than in past years as a hedge against the shipping delays that have plagued the business for nearly two years.

Much of Target’s excess inventory was in “bulky” categories like electronics, sporting goods, and furniture, which added more strain to an already stressed supply chain, CEO Brian Cornell said. Target and Walmart expect the excess inventory, including seasonal items, to sell through by fall and are cutting some prices to clear it.

While Target entered this year expecting the market to moderate, “we’ve experienced the exact opposite and we don’t see current conditions improving right away,” Cornell said. Target expects to incur $1 billion in incremental freight costs this year and, as a result, the chain’s gross profit margin fell 4.5% in the first quarter, COO John Mulligan said.

At the same time, Target and Walmart have passed some of the increased costs on to consumers. Target also moved some inventory to temporary warehouses rather than cut prices on seasonal goods, Cornell said.

“We don’t expect to see any meaningful reduction in supply chain pressures until 2023 at the earliest, so the elevated costs we are facing will continue to affect our profitability for the remainder of the year,” Target CFO Michael Fiddelke said. “But we are going to continue to secure product, land it, and avoid the out-of-stocks that we have had in the past.”

In the case of Walmart, price cuts had a $100-million impact on first-quarter gross profit. This came as some consumers replaced purchases of video games consoles, furniture, and TVs with food and switched to private-label goods from national brands, said Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner. Walmart’s first-quarter gross margin was down slightly due to higher supply chain, ecommerce fulfillment, and fuel costs, Furner said.

For its part, Target had a “rapid slowdown” in sales of hardlines, homewares, and apparel starting in early March, Cornell said. In hardlines, consumers “refocused their spending away from electronics like TVs and into experiences for kids and adults, which led to strength in toys, travel, and prepaid cards,” said Target Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington. Hennington noted that luggage sales increased 50% in the first quarter.

In perhaps a reflection of increased inventories, TJX Companies—which often benefits from selling manufacturer’s closeouts—expects sales will increase 1-3% in the second quarter (to $12 – $12.2 billion) on a 4-5% same-store sales increase. Yet the retailer isn’t without struggles. Its HomeGoods chain reported a 7% decline in first-quarter sales against a 40% increase a year earlier.

“The buying environment is that all markets are extremely loaded [with inventory] across the board, whether it’s home, apparel, accessories, [or] any of the other hardlines that we carry in the store,” TJX CEO Ernie Herrman said. At the same time, the “vast majority” of TJX’s open-to-buy budget, which allows the chain make purchases of close-out seasonal inventory, remains available, Herrman said.

“You’re looking at hundreds of millions of dollars here, and remember we’re buying to a $50-plus billion sales plan,” Herrman said. “We have so much to still chase for the third quarter that we think as we get closer and that we should be able to drive even harder.”

 

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