A Year of Adaptation
This is the time of year when we’re often celebrating the accomplishments of the last 12 months. If nothing else, 2020 shined a spotlight on our ability to adapt to radically changed circumstances. If we were awarding a “Product Category of the Year,” it would have to be facemasks – which no one in the Western world had given a thought to on January 1, 2020.
As we sit two weeks short of flipping the calendar, it’s a time to consider how everyone has had to learn to deal and persevere as professionals, citizens, spouses/significant others, parents, children, friends and coworkers.
We were struck by responses to our recent end-of-year flash survey (we’ll do a deeper dive on that after the holidays), particularly to the question, “What new skill were you personally forced to learn this year?”
Yes, we got a lot of “Zoom!” or “Teams,” and were amused by the brand owner who listed “Zoom. Third grade math and science. How to dress professionally from the chest up. How to bake bread.”
But we also saw words from licensing professionals around the world that are rarely used when questioned about “skills”: patience, resilience, flexibility, empathy. One U.S.-based licensee packed an awful lot into one brief response: “Patience, fortitude, perseverance, never giving up.”
So here’s our glance at some of the biggest topics of 2020 – a year of adaptation, as the global pandemic either moved us in unexpected directions or turbocharged shifts that were already in the works. There were facemasks, streaming platforms, eCommerce, the halt of live entertainment, the videogame boom, “comfort” brands, a shape-shifted “holiday” shopping season, the rise of private equity-backed brand management firms, among many others.
Masks
As the pandemic roared into the public consciousness around the world early in the year, it didn’t take long for the licensing community to jump into the business of non-medical grade face coverings. Many hesitated at first, not wanting to be seen as profiteers; in the first few months, there was a charity component to almost every deal. At this point, as vaccines are beginning to reach the general population, questions have moved on to “How long is this business going to last?”
eCommerce
Nobody’s seriously predicting the demise of brick-and-mortar retail, but there’s no doubt about the growth spurt that eCommerce experienced in 2020. Physical retailers – if they didn’t understand it before – understand more than ever that they need to give shoppers reasons to get out from behind their keyboards, whether it’s experiential elements, exclusive products, or some other factor.
It’s also forced every brand owner and licensee to re-examine virtually every aspect of their businesses from supply chain to sales and marketing. And it’s going to be a key differentiator among companies as they compete for business. Several agents and brand owners, in their responses to our end-of-year survey, said they’re placing a new emphasis on “selecting licensees who have presented a competency in online marketing and sales.” And licensees say they’re planning new investments in their own digital sales capabilities.
Cinemas and Streaming
From the time that cinemas around the world were shuttered, challenge of piecing together a new business plan on a landscape littered with more questions than answers. Release schedules were revised and re-re-re-revised, and the year turned into a series of skirmishes between studios and theater owners over the length of the window between theatrical debut and streaming platform release. All the while, the licensing community struggled to deal with all the uncertainty, and considered where streaming platforms will fit into their business.
Videogames
In normal times, the videogame business goes through a lull during the runup to the kind of platform transition that we saw last month when Sony and Microsoft introduced their latest consoles. But the forced stay-at-home lifestyle brought about by COVID-19 boosted gaming engagement, as did the runaway success of Nintendo’s Switch. Add to the mix a few hit titles, and the boost from eSports, and it was a banner gaming year.
What is the “Holiday Shopping Season?”
Are the scrambled shopping patterns of 2020 a short-term upset or a more fundamental shift in the natural order? When Amazon – challenged by supply chain issues — moved its gargantuan Prime Days to early October (and retailers of all stripes responded with their own promotions) its vibe morphed from “Christmas in July” to early kickoff to the holiday season. It’s still an open question whether the calendar shift merely frontloaded sales that would have occurred anyway, but everyone is watching to see what next year’s calendar looks like. Also, will Black Friday continue to be a thing?
Collapse of Live Events
When the first wave of the pandemic hit Europe and North America, many sports were at the heights of their seasons. Soccer leagues were going full blast, the NBA and NHL were on the verge of their playoffs, and March Madness was about to go… mad. And MLB was in the midst of spring training. All prime selling seasons for licensed goods. That left the leagues scrambling for solutions for how to stage events safely. Even if that left the stands empty, it allowed them to keep the TV money flowing, and engaged fans to varying degrees.
On the licensing side, it short circuited the emotion that fosters sales, and also scrambled the rhythm of the seasons for retailers and shoppers alike.
Other businesses built on gathering masses of people into the same place at the same time also were hurt – whether theme parks, live theater, or concerts – sending those constituencies scrambling to replace lost revenue. The big question going forward: when will people feel comfortable going back into theaters, arenas and stadiums?
Comfort brands
From the earliest days of the pandemic, it was apparent that shoppers – whether online or in stores – were almost magnetically attracted to comfort foods and legacy brands. It’s shown no signs of slowing.